Feeling the Heat!
Air drag and, sometimes, gravitational effects cause satellites to re-enter the Earth's atmosphere. Occasionally, re-entry is caused by a deliberate decision of a satellite owner to fire a retro-rocket and bring some part of a space vehicle back to Earth.
The majority of re-entries result in the vehicle being destroyed by frictional heating as it passes through the Earth's atmosphere. Some fragments may get through and hit the Earth's surface - hence the system of TIP messages to warn of the event. Only a space vehicle fitted with a heat shield will get through the atmosphere for an actual landing.
Anticipated Re-entries
Information comes from Space-Track. Most entries are from the '60-day' decay prediction messages. If the re-entry date has already passed then you might find the object is also in the Recent Re-entries list further down the page.
Below are re-entries expected over the next days. The list includes only natural re-entries and it excludes planned events such as a Soyuz, Shenzhou or Dragon spacecraft returning from space station duties.
Table created: 2026 May 15, 06:03 UTC
| Cat No |
Designation |
Name (SpaceTrack) |
Predicted Date UTC |
Prediction Issued UTC |
| 44724 | 2019-074M | Starlink | 2026 May 14 | 2026 May 14 | | 46691 | 2020-073X | Starlink 1790 | 2026 May 14 | 2026 May 14 | | 46564 | 2020-070AJ | Starlink 1733 | 2026 May 14 | 2026 May 12 | | 34859 | 1993-036ACD | Cosmos 2251 debris | 2026 May 16 | 2026 May 6 | | 46588 | 2020-070BJ | Starlink 1746 | 2026 May 16 | 2026 May 6 | | 46714 | 2020-073AW | Starlink 1816 | 2026 May 16 | 2026 May 6 | | 54578 | 2022-151ME | CZ 6A debris | 2026 May 16 | 2026 May 13 | | 68537 | 2026-061S | Soyuz third stage | 2026 May 16 | 2026 May 13 | | 51793 | 2022-017AB | Starlink 3633 | 2026 May 17 | 2026 May 6 | | 57437 | 2023-105H | Starlink 30237 | 2026 May 17 | 2026 May 6 | | 66910 | 1998-067XW | name not known | 2026 May 17 | 2026 May 13 | | 45674 | 2020-035T | Starlink 1457 | 2026 May 18 | 2026 May 6 | | 65033 | 2025-161U | Starlink 34671 | 2026 May 18 | 2026 May 13 | | 54837 | 2022-177T | Starlink 5369 | 2026 May 18 | 2026 May 14 | | 53858 | 2022-114AS | Starlink 4798 | 2026 May 19 | 2026 May 6 | | 59538 | 2024-074E | Starlink 31725 | 2026 May 19 | 2026 May 13 | | 64821 | 2025-151F | Kuiper 00074 | 2026 May 19 | 2026 May 6 | | 53930 | 2022-119AW | Starlink 5010 | 2026 May 20 | 2026 May 6 | | 54333 | 2022-151CC | CZ 6A debris | 2026 May 20 | 2026 May 6 | | 27740 | 1984-114E | Ariane 3 debris | 2026 May 21 | 2026 May 6 | | 31538 | 1999-025BYD | Fengyun 1C debris | 2026 May 21 | 2026 May 6 | | 46130 | 2020-057P | Starlink 1624 | 2026 May 21 | 2026 May 6 | | 46168 | 2020-057BD | Starlink 1627 | 2026 May 21 | 2026 May 6 | | 46749 | 2020-074L | Starlink 1911 | 2026 May 21 | 2026 May 6 | | 62412 | 2024-249D | Starlink 11462 | 2026 May 21 | 2026 May 13 | | 67718 | 2026-024E | debris | 2026 May 21 | 2026 May 13 | | 48592 | 2021-041AR | Starlink 2249 | 2026 May 22 | 2026 May 13 | | 55206 | 2022-151VX | CZ 6A debris | 2026 May 22 | 2026 May 6 | | 55867 | 2022-151ZP | CZ 6A debris | 2026 May 22 | 2026 May 13 | | 63492 | 2025-052BN | HADES-ICM | 2026 May 22 | 2026 May 13 | | 39266 | 2013-055B | CUSat 1 | 2026 May 23 | 2026 May 13 | | 46335 | 2020-062L | Starlink 1727 | 2026 May 23 | 2026 May 6 | | 61703 | 2024-195S | Starlink 32335 | 2026 May 23 | 2026 May 13 | | 67692 | 2026-024D | debris | 2026 May 23 | 2026 May 13 |
Recent TIP Messages
TIP messages are not a matter of routine and are not issued for all re-entries. They are more up to date and more precise than the Recent Re-entries list.
If you are unfamiliar with how to interpret TIP messages, you are recommended to read the Note at the bottom of the page.
Sometimes there may be a delay between the final TIP message and the re-entry being formally logged in Space-Track's Catalogue so a Message here may relate to a re-entry that has not yet entered the 'Recent' list.
Here is a list of TIP messages where the Window is less than about one quarter orbit. Even then it represents as much as ±9000 km of ground track. Where the window is ±1 minute, the re-entry signature was probably registered by a detector carried on a specialised 'space awareness' satellite.
Table created: 2026 May 15, 06:03 UTC
Cat No & Designation |
Name |
Terminal Date & Time UTC |
Lat, Long & Heading (10 km altitude) |
TIP Message Issued UTC |
56802 2023-078AM | Starlink 6070 | 2026 May 9 12:44 ± 1 minute(s) | 14°.4 south, 85°.6 east southbound, ± 0.01 orbits | 2026 May 9 14:30 |
Recent Re-entries
This table is extracted from Space-Track's Catalogue and lists re-entries that occurred in the last 30 days, whether natural or deliberate. Sometimes the date shown indicates when the object was noticed as 'missing from orbit', re-entry may actually have occurred at least one day earlier.
Table created: 2026 May 15, 06:03 UTC
| Cat No |
Designation |
Name |
Date UTC |
| 68801 | 2026-088K | Electron third stage | 2026 May 12 | | 60502 | 2024-149AL | FLOCK 4BE 33 | 2026 May 11 | | 46462 | 2020-065J | Jilin-1 High Resolution 03C 03 | 2026 May 11 | | 46038 | 2020-055M | Starlink 1567 | 2026 May 10 | | 61805 | 2024-140ABV | CZ 6A debris | 2026 May 10 | | 56802 | 2023-078AM | Starlink 6070 | 2026 May 9 | | 63876 | 2025-094N | Starlink 34061 | 2026 May 8 | | 54601 | 2022-151NB | CZ 6A debris | 2026 May 8 | | 62693 | 2025-009CN | name not known | 2026 May 8 | | 66907 | 1998-067XT | name not known | 2026 May 8 | | 66908 | 1998-067XU | name not known | 2026 May 8 |
Note on TIP Messages
Close to re-entry time for many objects, SpaceTrack issues TIP Messages with a more-precise warning of the event. The meaning of the TIP acronym is lost in the mists of time so Space-Track has re-invented it as 'Tracking and Impact Prediction'.
The message includes an estimated time, latitude and longitude for when the object will go through a height of 10 kilometres (definition - Space-Track) above the ground. It is a rough indication of the start point of the ellipse within which debris might fall given that horizontal velocity will have reduced to near-zero because of air resistance. In some cases, the location is imprecise in practical terms because the window included in the message covers a long track across the Earth's surface.
TIP Messages are often a source of confusion as people take the predicted time literally and ignore the error margin (Window). In 2011 RIA-Novosti used a TIP Message, issued several weeks in advance, to pinpoint a village in North Africa, doggedly insisting that it would feel the full force of of Phobos-Grunt’s re-entry. SpaceTrack's Window was ±2 days, representing over one million kilometres of ground track and a large proportion of the Earth's surface between 52° North and 52° South.
|